James Tanner: Is Trotz Coming Back to the Capitals?

Fist!

Agree on Columbus, their pretty good. Big Pierre-Luc Dubois fan here.

Lucky Leher one of the best drummers

Agree on Columbus, their pretty good. Big Pierre-Luc Dubois fan here.
- Pet.m.d.

Pierre-Luc is gonna be huge.

Hockey is never about what the on paper roster looks like it's about how the team performs on the ice. It's a team game. Having the best "looking" roster doesn't mean spit. The Caps situation of the last two years should show you that but we know you won't learn that lesson. Vegas had far more than just a goalie but it won't stop you from singing that ridiculous narrative along with many others.

Tanners worst nightmare

Hockey is never about what the on paper roster looks like it's about how the team performs on the ice. It's a team game. Having the best "looking" roster doesn't mean spit. The Caps situation of the last two years should show you that but we know you won't learn that lesson. Vegas had far more than just a goalie but it won't stop you from singing that ridiculous narrative along with many others.
- MJL

Other than maybe five teams, the NHL has so much parity that anyone can win. This doesn't mean that we can't look at rosters, stats and games and come to a reasonable idea of who the best teams are. That those teams don't win 100% of the time doesn't "prove" that we're looking at the wrong things. We know that anomalies occur. Stats and analysis don't let you predict the future, they just give you a probability. What people don't get is that while 60% probability is pretty good, you will still be wrong 40% of the time.

It's not like what I'm saying isn't easily proven. You could look up the team stats of the Capitals (CF%, SF and SA / 60) and you could see how often teams who finish so low in those stats win the Stanley Cup. You will learn the answer is almost never.

Last years Capitals team was much better than this year's winning team. That is indisputable. Winning is nice, but it's just one result out of many possible results and it pays to look into things deeply so that you can know whether they were likely to occur, or are likely to reoccur.

Other than maybe five teams, the NHL has so much parity that anyone can win. This doesn't mean that we can't look at rosters, stats and games and come to a reasonable idea of who the best teams are. That those teams don't win 100% of the time doesn't "prove" that we're looking at the wrong things. We know that anomalies occur. Stats and analysis don't let you predict the future, they just give you a probability. What people don't get is that while 60% probability is pretty good, you will still be wrong 40% of the time.

It's not like what I'm saying isn't easily proven. You could look up the team stats of the Capitals (CF%, SF and SA / 60) and you could see how often teams who finish so low in those stats win the Stanley Cup. You will learn the answer is almost never.

Last years Capitals team was much better than this year's winning team. That is indisputable. Winning is nice, but it's just one result out of many possible results and it pays to look into things deeply so that you can know whether they were likely to occur, or are likely to reoccur.
- james_tanner1

Winning is one of many possible results? Nah u win or lose. Fact

Trotz doing his best Cuba Gooding Jr. "show me the money" impression..

Other than maybe five teams, the NHL has so much parity that anyone can win. This doesn't mean that we can't look at rosters, stats and games and come to a reasonable idea of who the best teams are. That those teams don't win 100% of the time doesn't "prove" that we're looking at the wrong things. We know that anomalies occur. Stats and analysis don't let you predict the future, they just give you a probability. What people don't get is that while 60% probability is pretty good, you will still be wrong 40% of the time.

It's not like what I'm saying isn't easily proven. You could look up the team stats of the Capitals (CF%, SF and SA / 60) and you could see how often teams who finish so low in those stats win the Stanley Cup. You will learn the answer is almost never.

Last years Capitals team was much better than this year's winning team. That is indisputable. Winning is nice, but it's just one result out of many possible results and it pays to look into things deeply so that you can know whether they were likely to occur, or are likely to reoccur.
- james_tanner1

But when you're wrong 99% of the time, maybe you change the things you look at?

Or not.

Why is this even a question? We all know Barry will be Trotzing out with a hefty new contract becauuse now he's a "Stanley cup wining" coach. Seriously, anyone who is into stats has a coach ever won the Stanley cup and came back to coach a new team the next year?

Why is this even a question? We all know Barry will be Trotzing out with a hefty new contract becauuse now he's a "Stanley cup wining" coach. Seriously, anyone who is into stats has a coach ever won the Stanley cup and came back to coach a new team the next year?
- MaDdMuNk87

Mike Keenan.

Improbable Stanley Cup Run? You guys finished first in the best division in hockey by far 🙈

Congrats by the way Caps fans. Well deserved. As an Islanders fan was pulling hard for you guys. It was great seeing you guys bring that bullpoop team put together by the league commissioner back down to earth.

Other than maybe five teams, the NHL has so much parity that anyone can win. This doesn't mean that we can't look at rosters, stats and games and come to a reasonable idea of who the best teams are. That those teams don't win 100% of the time doesn't "prove" that we're looking at the wrong things. We know that anomalies occur. Stats and analysis don't let you predict the future, they just give you a probability. What people don't get is that while 60% probability is pretty good, you will still be wrong 40% of the time.


- james_tanner1

What you wrote about was not predicting what was going to happen. It was analysis about what did actually happen. You repeatedly get that wrong just like you did in this blog.

It's not like what I'm saying isn't easily proven. You could look up the team stats of the Capitals (CF%, SF and SA / 60) and you could see how often teams who finish so low in those stats win the Stanley Cup. You will learn the answer is almost never.


- james_tanner1

If it is easily proven then why do you fail to actually prove it? The issue is the stats that you worship to use who is the best team can't and don't prove anything about who is the best team. The best team is proven by wins and losses. The best team wins the 7 game series.

Last years Capitals team was much better than this year's winning team. That is indisputable. Winning is nice, but it's just one result out of many possible results and it pays to look into things deeply so that you can know whether they were likely to occur, or are likely to reoccur.
- james_tanner1

Winning is the only result that matters and that counts. Last year's Cap team was very good but they did not win it all.

One final question to you. If the stats you worship are so much better at predicting outcomes, how come you are so ridiculously awful at predicting outcomes?

When you finally move off of weighting analytics so high in formulating your opinions and predictions and actually start observing the game, then maybe you'll actually have some insight and we'll find out how much you actually know the game. We already know how poorly you fail in your application and use of analytics.

But when you're wrong 99% of the time, maybe you change the things you look at?

Or not.
- Tumbleweed

Exactly!


It's called retrospect or self awareness.

MJL, have you ever added anything of consequence to a blog, or do you live your life just to nitpick every detail of any blog? You don't wear the bitterness of your team sucking very well.

Enjoy your blogs James, I get them, sadly many don't.

James, any chance you think they trade Orpik's contract + a pick to montreal or New York to get him off the books?

MJL, have you ever added anything of consequence to a blog, or do you live your life just to nitpick every detail of any blog? You don't wear the bitterness of your team sucking very well.

Enjoy your blogs James, I get them, sadly many don't.
- devilhawk

I would suggest you read the blog more.

As far as my team is concerned, they had a solid season last year and made the playoffs. The Flyers have been one of the most successful franchises in the NHL. They currently have a number of really good young players and have one of the best prospect bases in the NHL. So that would make you wrong on both counts. What else do you have?

What you wrote about was not predicting what was going to happen. It was analysis about what did actually happen. You repeatedly get that wrong just like you did in this blog.



If it is easily proven then why do you fail to actually prove it? The issue is the stats that you worship to use who is the best team can't and don't prove anything about who is the best team. The best team is proven by wins and losses. The best team wins the 7 game series.



Winning is the only result that matters and that counts. Last year's Cap team was very good but they did not win it all.

One final question to you. If the stats you worship are so much better at predicting outcomes, how come you are so ridiculously awful at predicting outcomes?

When you finally move off of weighting analytics so high in formulating your opinions and predictions and actually start observing the game, then maybe you'll actually have some insight and we'll find out how much you actually know the game. We already know how poorly you fail in your application and use of analytics.
- MJL

The year is 2027.

Jimmy TanTan is the now the commissioner of the NHL and are making big changes.

The regular season is now 150 rounds long and ends may 1st.

There is no playoffs.

On may 5th, each team meets up in Brantford, Ontario for the yearly recognition of the Stanley Cup winner.

REM is opening the event with a 4 hour gig.

Jimmy enters stage, The Gardiner Trophy is awarded to the best defensemen, the Kadri Cadett has replaced the Selke, Brett Connolly Cup for best goalscorer and the Corsi Cup for best possession driver. The Chayka Medallion is awarded to GM of the year, Chiarelli Chisel to the worst.

It is time to award the Stanley. The lights gets dimmed. A humungus spreadsheet is displayed on stage. There are stats there that modern technology only can dream of.

And its decided, best team with lowest PDO is announced...The Stanley Cup goes to:

The Seattle Sandsquash.

Some hipsterband enters stage and closes the event. The right team always win. Its as fair as it gets and Jimmy was right all along.

MJL, have you ever added anything of consequence to a blog, or do you live your life just to nitpick every detail of any blog? You don't wear the bitterness of your team sucking very well.

Enjoy your blogs James, I get them, sadly many don't.
- devilhawk

Thanks man, the comments are what they are - can't help that. Appreciate the odd nice one though!

James, any chance you think they trade Orpik's contract + a pick to montreal or New York to get him off the books?
- david22

There's always a chance......but there is a better chance they think that he's actually good. They can buy him out though now, since I think it would be only for two years and half the cap hit? I honestly forget the buyout rules/.

There's always a chance......but there is a better chance they think that he's actually good. They can buy him out though now, since I think it would be only for two years and half the cap hit? I honestly forget the buyout rules/.
- james_tanner1

The issue is good is relative when you're looking at role players such as Orpik. He is good at certain areas of the game and adds value in that way which is why the Caps obtained him, kept him, and why he was an integral part of a Stanley Cup winning team.
You routinely judge players with the same measuring sticks and that's not the right way to do it.

Blah blah blah, the Stanley Cup champions didn't deserve to make the playoffs. The Carolina Hurricanes were soooooo much better on paper, because goalies don't count on paper.

Blah blah blah, the Stanley Cup champions should have lost round 1. After being completely dominated and an embarrassment to DC, the NHL, the NHLPA and me, James Tanner (resulting in losing 2 games in overtime) it took a "miracle" for this .600 team to win 4 out of 5 games.

Blah blah blah, the Stanley Cup champions should have lost round 2. THE PENGUINS ARE THE GREATEST TEAM EVER! Corsi says so!

Blah blah blah, the Stanley Cup champions should have lost round 3. Their 12 forwards and 6 defensemen were clearly inferior to the Lighting's 12 forwards and 6 defenseman. I feel like I'm missing something. 12 and 6, 12 and 6, nope, I got it all.

Blah blah blah, the Stanley Cup champions should have lost the Finals. The league is broken when a lottery team whens the Stanley Cup!

I award the coveted Corsi Cup to the Penguins. Clearly the best group of forwards and defensemen at 5v5 on paper in the entire league.

The issue is good is relative when you're looking at role players such as Orpik. He is good at certain areas of the game and adds value in that way which is why the Caps obtained him, kept him, and why he was an integral part of a Stanley Cup winning team.
You routinely judge players with the same measuring sticks and that's not the right way to do it.
- MJL

Rumor mill is that he may retire and go the coaching route.